UK Gambling Commission Warns Rising VPN Use Is Obscuring Illegal Gambling Activity

The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has cautioned that the increasing use of virtual private networks (VPNs) is making it significantly more difficult to track illegal online gambling activity, even as regulators expand their analytical efforts.

According to a new analysis released on Tuesday, tools designed to enhance consumer privacy are simultaneously complicating enforcement and reducing the accuracy of available market data.

The Commission’s latest update examines consumer engagement with unlicensed online gambling platforms, pointing to fluctuating activity levels and growing uncertainty in measurement due to anonymising technologies.

The findings follow a panel discussion on illegal gambling held during the UKGC’s Spring Evidence Conference in Birmingham in March, where industry stakeholders, the Dutch gambling regulator and HMRC gathered to address enforcement challenges and data limitations.

The new report builds on conclusions published in November 2025, when the UKGC acknowledged it could not reliably determine how much consumers were spending with illegal operators.

At the time, the regulator found that none of its three primary measurement approaches—time-based metrics, channelisation estimates or survey data—were sufficiently robust. It also conceded that its methodology required further refinement.

Six months later, while the Commission has provided an updated dataset, it maintains that the overall picture remains inconclusive. The latest analysis spans a 21-month period through February 2026 and uses estimated time spent on illegal gambling websites as a proxy for consumer engagement.

The data reveals volatile patterns of activity, with no consistent seasonal trends or evidence of sustained growth. Although there was a noticeable spike in engagement during autumn 2024, this increase did not repeat the following year, reinforcing the view that the market is characterised by fluctuation rather than steady expansion.

A key factor complicating the analysis is the growing prevalence of VPN usage, particularly following the implementation of the UK’s Online Safety Act in July 2025. While the Commission had previously applied a 30% uplift to account for traffic masked by VPNs, more recent evidence suggests that an even greater share of illegal gambling activity may now be hidden from view.

Supporting data from Ofcom and analytics firm Similarweb shows that VPN usage began rising sharply in July 2025 and has since stabilised at approximately 40% above pre-July levels. In response, the UKGC has incorporated two separate VPN usage scenarios into its modelling, which has resulted in wider confidence intervals in its estimates from mid-2025 onward.

Despite these efforts, the Commission stressed that its figures are based on web traffic estimates that inherently carry margins of error. Moreover, such analysis does not capture all forms of illegal gambling access, including activity conducted via mobile applications or direct connections. As a result, the data is better suited to identifying general trends than to providing precise measurements of market size or user engagement.

“We continue to work on improvements to our methodology and are seeking input from other international regulators and licensed operators to help verify and improve existing data sources and to identify additional datasets which can be used to improve understanding of the illegal market,” said Tim Livesley, head of the UKGC’s Data Innovation Hub.

Alongside refining its analytical approach, the Commission is also strengthening its data collection efforts through initiatives such as the Gambling Survey for Great Britain and the Consumer Voice research programme.

The regulator emphasized that accurate measurement of illegal gambling activity is essential for effective enforcement. Reliable data enables authorities to better target interventions, including payment blocking, domain takedowns and partnerships with financial institutions and advertising platforms.

“The Commission continues to treat illegal gambling as a priority and we will also be providing further updates on how we are expanding our disruption and enforcement activity,” Livesley added.

The UKGC’s acknowledgment of the challenges posed by VPN usage reflects a broader issue confronting regulators globally. Technologies developed to safeguard user privacy are increasingly creating obstacles for authorities and payment processors attempting to detect and disrupt illegal gambling operations, underscoring the complex balance between consumer protection and regulatory oversight.

By fLEXI tEAM