Europe’s Second Energy Shock Exposes Persistent Dependence on Global Gas Markets

More than one hundred days after the outbreak of the war involving Iran, Europe finds itself confronting a difficult reality that calls into question the foundations of the energy strategy adopted in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While the continent’s efforts to reduce reliance on Russian natural gas and expand the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) succeeded in mitigating one major vulnerability, recent developments suggest that a new form of dependence has emerged in its place.

This assessment forms the central finding of a recent study by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), which evaluated the consequences for European energy markets following the near-total interruption of LNG exports from Qatar after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has brought renewed attention to the structural weaknesses embedded within Europe’s current energy framework and underscored the challenges associated with achieving genuine diversification of supply.

Europe is now enduring its second major energy-related shock in fewer than five years. The first crisis arose in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted established gas supply routes and dramatically altered European energy markets. The latest shock has emerged from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have reverberated throughout the global LNG trade and exposed fresh vulnerabilities in Europe’s supply chain.

The effective loss of Qatari LNG exports to Europe triggered a substantial reconfiguration of global energy flows. According to the IEEFA study, LNG imports into the European Union increased between March and May 2026 from every major supplier except Qatar. During that period, imports from the United States rose by 5 percent, imports from Algeria increased by 11 percent, volumes arriving from Russia expanded by 25 percent, and supplies from Norway surged by 84 percent compared with the same period a year earlier.

As a result of these shifting trade patterns, LNG originating from the United States now accounts for 60 percent of all LNG imported into the European Union, up from 56 percent during the corresponding period in 2025. The figures illustrate that expanding the number of suppliers alone does not automatically guarantee energy security when Europe remains heavily exposed to global gas markets and geopolitical events taking place far beyond its borders.

Particularly noteworthy is the sharp increase in Russian LNG imports. Despite years of policy initiatives designed to reduce Europe’s dependence on Moscow for energy supplies, significant volumes of Russian natural gas continue to reach European consumers. The 25 percent increase recorded during the review period demonstrates that achieving a complete separation from Russian energy sources remains a difficult and complex objective.

The crisis also revealed considerable differences among European countries in the way they approach energy security. While some governments responded by increasing LNG purchases in an effort to strengthen supply resilience, others pursued strategies aimed at reducing their dependence on the fuel altogether.

Germany provided perhaps the most striking example. Having already lost access to Russian pipeline gas in previous years, Europe’s largest economy significantly expanded its LNG imports. Between March and May, German LNG purchases increased by 72 percent compared with the same period the previous year, representing the largest increase among all European Union member states.

France took a markedly different path. Rather than expanding LNG consumption, the country reduced LNG imports by 23 percent, reflecting an alternative approach to managing energy risks during the crisis.

The United Kingdom likewise moved to lessen its reliance on LNG. British imports declined by 20 percent year-on-year, while the proportion of LNG sourced from the United States fell from 67 percent to 63 percent. These developments indicate a broader reassessment of the role LNG should play within national energy systems.

Taken together, the European Union and the United Kingdom recorded an overall decline of approximately 3 percent in LNG imports since March. This trend suggests that governments across the region are increasingly pursuing distinct strategies regarding the future place of natural gas within their respective energy portfolios.

According to the IEEFA analysis, the past hundred days have served as a major stress test for Europe’s energy infrastructure and policy framework, exposing both areas of strength and persistent vulnerabilities. On the positive side, Europe successfully avoided severe gas shortages despite losing access to one of the world’s most significant LNG suppliers. However, the necessity of replacing lost Qatari supplies with additional imports from the United States, Russia, and other exporting countries demonstrated that energy security cannot be achieved simply by exchanging one external supplier for another.

The report argues that Europe’s long-term ability to withstand future shocks will depend primarily on reducing overall natural gas consumption and accelerating investments in technologies capable of lowering exposure to volatile international fuel markets.

Within this context, renewable energy sources assume even greater strategic importance. Expanding wind and solar generation capacity, investing in energy storage technologies, advancing the electrification of industrial processes and transportation systems, and strengthening electricity transmission networks are increasingly viewed as essential measures for reducing Europe’s vulnerability to external energy disruptions.

The overarching conclusion of the report is that the energy crisis triggered by the Iran war has done more than expose the geopolitical risks associated with the Middle East. It has also demonstrated that, four years after the Ukraine-related energy upheaval, Europe continues to search for a genuinely sustainable model of energy security—one that is less dependent on international gas markets and increasingly anchored in domestic, clean, and reliable sources of energy.

By fLEXI tEAM