Maersk Expands Cautious Suez Return as Broader Red Sea Comeback Remains Uncertain

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have shifted another major Asia–Europe container service back through the Suez Canal, providing another indication that some shipping lines are cautiously reassessing their reliance on the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.

However, the latest move remains a targeted decision rather than evidence of a broad return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

The two shipping companies announced that their AE19 service, operated as part of the Gemini Cooperation, would return to the Suez route immediately, beginning with the westbound voyage of the Berlin Maersk. The service links Asia with destinations in the Mediterranean, Saudi Arabia and Europe and had previously been diverted around the Cape of Good Hope because of security concerns in the Red Sea.

According to Hapag-Lloyd, routing AE19 through Suez is expected to reduce the voyage time by approximately four weeks compared with the alternative route around southern Africa.

Maersk said the decision was made following an assessment of the security situation in the Red Sea. Hapag-Lloyd, however, stressed that the change should not be interpreted as a general reopening of its network to the Suez Canal. The company described it as a “targeted adjustment for one selected service, not a general network-wide return”.

Hapag-Lloyd added that decisions concerning other services would depend on several factors, including the security situation, whether the route could operate reliably and safely, and the consequences for customers.

AE19 is now the fourth Maersk service to be shifted from the Cape of Good Hope back to Suez since the beginning of July. The other services are AE15, MECL and WAF6. Despite these changes, the majority of services that could potentially benefit from the shorter Red Sea route continue to avoid the area.

Maersk said that nine other services that could benefit from travelling through the Red Sea and Suez Canal are still operating via the Cape of Good Hope. The company declined to comment on whether any of those services might be moved back in the future.

Shipping analysts have also cautioned against interpreting the return of a limited number of services as the beginning of a full-scale restoration of Suez traffic.

Simon Heaney, senior manager for container research at maritime consultancy Drewry, said the speed at which traffic through Suez recovers will remain closely linked to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the broader conflict in the Middle East.

“While the latter remains unresolved, we do not expect to see a meaningful return of Asia-to-Europe loops via Suez,” he said.

Why carriers are likely to move back gradually

Even if security conditions in the Red Sea improve further, shipping companies are unlikely to redirect their entire networks through Suez simultaneously. Any wider return is expected to take place progressively as carriers assess the risks and operational consequences of using the route again.

Heaney said the process would most likely begin with voyages from Europe, which generally carry lower-value cargo. Shipping companies would first need to gain confidence that hostilities would not suddenly resume before they were prepared to send higher-value shipments through the region.

Capacity management is another important consideration for carriers.

The decision to sail around Africa has forced shipping companies to deploy more vessels because the longer voyages extend the time required to complete each rotation. A large-scale return to Suez would shorten those rotations and release vessels back into the market at a time when carriers are already receiving substantial numbers of newly built ships.

That could create significant excess capacity and put pressure on freight rates.

“Carriers have to manage capacity wisely due to the large number of new ships being delivered,” Heaney said. “Shortening rotations en masse will see rates slide dramatically.”

For European importers, the gradual approach means the benefits of a return to Suez are unlikely to be felt across the market immediately. Selected services may begin offering substantially shorter transit times, but the broader shipping network is unlikely to return to its previous schedules all at once.

Suez remains strategically important to Europe and Egypt

The Suez Canal remains the shortest maritime route between Asia and Europe, allowing ships to avoid the substantially longer journey around the Cape of Good Hope.

The prolonged diversions have increased voyage times and fuel consumption for shipping companies while simultaneously reducing one of Egypt's major sources of foreign currency revenue. As a result, the Suez Canal Authority has repeatedly encouraged international carriers to restore their use of the waterway.

In June, Suez Canal Authority chairman Admiral Osama Rabie said that shorter transit times and lower operating costs were beginning to encourage some of the world's largest container ships to return to the canal.

His comments came as the CMA CGM Vendôme, a vessel capable of carrying up to 24,000 twenty-foot equivalent containers, travelled through the Suez Canal on a service connecting Asia with north-western Europe.

The voyage represented the first southbound transit through Suez by the FAL 3 service since January. The Suez Canal Authority said ships operated by French carrier CMA CGM completed 104 voyages through the canal between January and May, representing a combined tonnage of 12.5 million tonnes.

The return of AE19 and several other services therefore provides some early evidence that shipping activity through Suez may be starting to recover. Nevertheless, both Hapag-Lloyd and Drewry maintain that these individual decisions should not yet be interpreted as the beginning of a widespread return to the canal.

For now, carriers remain focused on balancing security risks, customer requirements, operational reliability and vessel capacity. Until the wider security situation in the Middle East becomes more stable, a significant restoration of Asia–Europe shipping routes through Suez is likely to remain a gradual and cautious process. 

By fLEXI tEAM