Brazil Moves to Ban Prediction Markets, Blocks Platforms Including Polymarket

Brazil has formally moved to prohibit prediction market operators from conducting business within its borders, marking a significant regulatory shift in one of Latin America’s largest markets. During a press conference held on Friday, Finance Minister Dario Durigan and Miriam Belchior, chief of staff to the presidency, confirmed that such platforms are now considered illegal under national law.

The decision follows a resolution adopted by the National Monetary Council (CMN), which clarified the types of products permitted within the derivatives market. According to the new framework, contracts cannot be based on outcomes tied to sporting events, online gaming, or any real or virtual occurrences of a political, electoral, social, cultural, or entertainment nature. This effectively removes prediction-based instruments from the scope of allowable financial products.

Brazil’s telecommunications regulator, Anatel, has already begun enforcement measures, blocking access to 28 platforms offering such event-based contracts. Authorities indicated that further action will be taken against any additional operators that attempt to enter or re-enter the market.

Belchior framed the move as part of Brazil’s ongoing effort to refine and tighten its betting regulations. “Now, we are announcing that prediction markets will not be allowed in Brazil,” she said. “We do not want to expose Brazilians to risks and financial losses.” Durigan reinforced this stance, explaining that the government had carefully reviewed the issue and concluded that wagering on uncertain outcomes, such as weather events, does not align with existing laws governing sports betting and online gaming. “Platforms are already being blocked to prevent uncontrolled growth and risks to the population,” he warned. “Currently, 28 have already been blocked, and others that emerge will suffer the same fate.”

The finance minister further stressed that prediction markets fall outside the legal framework established by Congress. Since the launch of Brazil’s regulated online gambling market in January 2025, authorities have already blocked approximately 39,000 unlicensed betting websites. Durigan indicated that prediction market operators will be treated similarly. “Our goal is to curb any type of illegal betting,” he stated. He was unequivocal in his assessment, adding that “The product offered by these platforms is not eligible for regulation. The blocking action is due to non-compliance with the legislation. This market is not provided for in the legislation, and it will not be permitted for anyone to bet on whether it will rain tomorrow or not.”

Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, explained that the country’s regulatory model is designed to organise and control specific forms of betting activity, particularly those tied to sports and licensed online games. “Betting that is not related to sporting events and online games was excluded from this regulation. Any other type of betting is prohibited,” he emphasised. Dudena noted that prediction markets had gained traction by resembling traditional betting products while avoiding clear legal classification. “We began to see the growth of prediction markets, which look a lot like betting, but not as defined by law,” he said. He added that while these products shared the characteristics of betting, they were presented as financial instruments, raising concerns about their classification as securities. “In response, the CMN [National Monetary Council] excluded predictions from the scope of offerings in the market.”

Further clarification came from Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting, who reiterated that fixed-odds betting remains legal and is regulated as a public service. “Therefore, authorised platforms must comply with the established rules.” She warned that prediction market operators had attempted to enter Brazil by disguising betting activities as derivatives products. “This is illegal and has not been recognised by the Brazilian government,” she declared. “We have seen these platforms and identified that the dynamics are those of a bet, but not covered by Law 14.790, which only covers fixed-odds betting and online games.”

Ricardo Morishita, the national consumer secretary, reinforced that prediction markets are entirely prohibited, as they are not recognised under Law 14.790 or the CMN’s resolution. He cautioned that illegal betting poses significant risks to consumers and encouraged individuals to use only regulated platforms identifiable by the bet.br domain.

When questioned about whether companies such as Polymarket would be barred from operating in Brazil, Dudena confirmed that any platform offering services outside the scope defined by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting or the CMN would face blocking measures. This stance suggests that other operators, including Kalshi—which had recently announced plans to launch in Brazil through a partnership with XP International—may also be prevented from entering the market.

Dudena concluded by noting that companies offering derivatives products will remain protected under Brazilian law, provided they adhere strictly to the limitations set by the National Monetary Council and avoid introducing instruments that fall outside the approved regulatory framework.

By fLEXI tEAM