US Backs Prediction Markets as Other G20 Nations Move to Restrict Them

The United States, under President Donald Trump’s second administration, is increasingly embracing prediction markets and the expanding trade in event-based contracts linked to everything from sports and politics to pop culture.

While Washington moves to support the industry, several of the world’s largest economies are taking the opposite approach, introducing restrictions or outright bans on the controversial platforms.

Speaking at the White House this week alongside Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig, Trump declared that the United States would take the lead in shaping the future of prediction markets.

Despite concerns that these platforms could be vulnerable to insider trading and the potential misuse of sensitive information, including confidential military secrets, the Trump administration’s CFTC is continuing efforts to reinforce the ability of federally regulated prediction markets to provide a broader range of non-traditional event contracts.

Elsewhere, however, governments are becoming increasingly wary of the industry and are moving to limit public access to major prediction market platforms.

South Korea Blocks Polymarket

Polymarket, the New York-based company widely regarded as the world's largest prediction market operating outside the United States, suffered another setback this week after South Korea moved to block access to the platform.

The Korea Media and Communications Commission (KMCC) voted to restrict access to Polymarket, concluding that the platform constitutes illegal gambling. South Korean media regulators determined that Polymarket violated both the country's Criminal Act and the National Sports Promotion Act.

Under the decision, internet service providers are required to immediately prevent users from accessing Polymarket's website and mobile application.

Explaining its decision, the KMCC said: “Polymarket’s winner-take-all structure encourages gambling by making users’ financial gains or losses depend heavily on the outcomes of events they cannot control, such as politics, the economy, international affairs, sports, elections, and weather.”

The restrictions also carry consequences for those attempting to bypass them. Anyone found guilty of using a virtual private network, or VPN, to circumvent the ISP blockade and access Polymarket in South Korea could face a fine of up to KRW10 million, or approximately US$7,200.

A Growing G20 Crackdown

South Korea is now the latest member of the G20 to take action against Polymarket, following France, which blocked access to the platform through an ISP order in July.

Other countries, including Spain, Argentina, and Indonesia, have also restricted Polymarket through directives requiring internet providers to block access. Additional G20 nations that have imposed restrictions on the prediction market include Australia, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, Thailand, and the United Kingdom.

Restrictions are not limited to sovereign nations. In Canada, four provinces—Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec—also prohibit access to Polymarket.

The contrasting approaches highlight a widening divide over the future of prediction markets. While the Trump administration is positioning the United States as a leader in the development and expansion of federally regulated event-contract trading, many of the world's other major economies appear increasingly determined to treat such platforms as a form of gambling that requires strict limitations or prohibition.

The G20, formally known as the Group of 20, is an intergovernmental forum made up of 19 sovereign countries, along with the European Union and the African Union. The organization focuses on major global economic issues, including financial stability, and its members account for roughly 85% of global gross domestic product and approximately two-thirds of the world's population.

By fLEXI tEAM