Oil Prices Climb as US–Iran Talks Falter, While Global Markets Show Limited Movement

European equities and US futures were largely subdued on Monday morning, even as oil prices pushed higher and Asian markets showed mixed but generally positive momentum. The price of Brent crude remained firmly above $100 per barrel, buoyed by renewed uncertainty surrounding diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran, which appear to have stalled despite a prolonged ceasefire.

At the start of trading, oil markets moved upward, reflecting investor concern over the fragile state of US–Iran negotiations. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose by 2.8% to reach $108 per barrel, marking a weekly increase of approximately 10%. Meanwhile, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.5% to around $96.7 per barrel. The gains followed a second round of talks over the weekend that failed to yield any tangible progress.

Tensions escalated further on Saturday when the White House canceled plans to dispatch envoys to Pakistan for additional negotiations. The US President, Donald Trump, stated that Tehran had not satisfied Washington’s conditions and raised doubts about the stability of Iran’s leadership. “If they want, we can talk, but we’re not sending people,” Trump stated on Sunday. He also said earlier on social media: “All they have to do is call!!!”

At the same time, ongoing Iranian missile activity has disrupted maritime traffic, forcing oil tankers to steer clear of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway that typically handles about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil supply.

Stock markets across Europe reflected a cautious mood. The Euro Stoxx 50 and the broader Stoxx Europe 600 hovered near unchanged levels as investors weighed the geopolitical developments. In national indices, the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 posted slight declines, while Germany’s DAX edged up nearly 0.2%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB gained more than 0.2%.

Across the Atlantic, US futures traded modestly lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite performing relatively better by staying close to flat.

Investor focus is also shifting toward central bank decisions scheduled for later in the week, with announcements expected from the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England. While all three institutions are widely anticipated to maintain current interest rates, market participants will closely analyze their statements for any signals regarding the duration of the current restrictive monetary stance. The broader economic outlook for 2026 remains closely tied to geopolitical instability stemming from the Iran conflict, leaving central bankers with limited control over external pressures shaping policy direction.

In the Asia-Pacific region, markets delivered a mixed performance overnight. Japan’s Nikkei 225 initially surged 1.4% to a record 60,564 before retreating from those highs. South Korea’s Kospi rose 2.1% to 6,617. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.2% to 25,922, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.2% to 4,089.

Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.3% to 8,759. Taiwan’s TAIEX stood out with a gain of more than 3%, supported by renewed investor interest in technology stocks amid the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence.

Currency markets showed modest shifts, with the US dollar weakening slightly to 159.34 Japanese yen from 159.59, while the euro strengthened to $1.1723 from $1.1701.

By fLEXI tEAM