Macau Leader Signals GGR Will Miss Targets Amid Volatile Global Conditions

Macau’s Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai has cautioned that the city’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is continuing to lag behind expectations and is unlikely to hit government projections by year-end, underscoring the sector’s fragility in the face of shifting international forces. Speaking at a press conference after presenting his 2026 Policy Address on Tuesday, Hou Fai admitted, “Until now, GGR has not matched our expectations, and we don’t believe it will do so by November or December.”

He stressed that the gaming industry remains acutely exposed to broader economic currents, remarking, “The gaming sector is very vulnerable to external circumstances, and it is very hard to predict the changes in international factors and conditions.” Citing this sensitivity, Hou Fai explained why the government opted not to issue a GGR forecast for next year as part of the latest policy blueprint.

According to the Chief Executive, casino revenues from last November through this March consistently underperformed, a trend he attributed to the sector’s reliance on fluctuating economic environments. “The gaming sector is highly sensitive to changes in the broader environment,” he said, highlighting how both domestic and global dynamics shape Macau’s leading industry.

He noted that the situation showed improvement from April onward as economic conditions stabilized across key markets, aiding a rebound in tourism. Visitor arrivals reached more than 29 million in the first three quarters, up 14.5 percent year-on-year, with international travellers contributing to the uptick. Hou Fai pointed to surging stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China—at their highest levels in seven to eight years—which has created a “wealth effect” and fueled a rise in premium-mass customers. Still, he warned that these favourable conditions may not hold. “The projections for the second half of this year and next year will be announced by the Secretary for Economy and Finance,” he said, adding that officials must remain vigilant given the rapidly changing economic landscape and mounting uncertainties.

Macau’s casino industry has endured an uneven 2025, with Hou Fai acknowledging that although the post-April stabilization briefly lifted gaming and tourism indicators, unpredictability has resurfaced. The city’s dependence on visitors from mainland China and Hong Kong continues to shape its recovery trajectory, as authorities weigh signs of regional momentum against concerns over global headwinds.

Despite expectations that Macau will welcome 38 million to 39 million visitors this year—approaching pre-pandemic volumes—gaming revenue has not risen proportionately. Between January and October 2025, cumulative GGR reached MOP205.43 billion ($25.64 billion), an 8 percent increase from a year earlier but still 16.7 percent short of the 2019 level of MOP246.74 billion ($30.8 billion). Reflecting ongoing pressures, the government in June revised its 2025 GGR outlook downward by roughly 5 percent, cutting the estimate to MOP228 billion ($28.4 billion) from the prior MOP240 billion ($29.9 billion).

Amid projections of softer-than-anticipated GGR, Hou Fai reiterated the difficulty of forecasting performance in a sector so closely tethered to global tourism flows and economic sentiment. “This year many people say ASEAN economies have reached a new height, with Hong Kong’s stock market also growing a lot. But we can’t guarantee it will be so next year,” he cautioned.

By fLEXI tEAM