Indonesia Blocks Polymarket Amid Crackdown on Online Gambling and Bets on President Prabowo’s Future

Indonesia has intensified its nationwide campaign against illegal gambling by officially blocking access to the crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket, following controversy surrounding wagers tied to President Prabowo Subianto and his political future.

Although gambling remains illegal throughout Indonesia, underground betting operations and offshore online gambling sites have continued to attract users for years. Under Prabowo’s administration, however, authorities have significantly strengthened enforcement efforts aimed at eliminating digital gambling platforms operating within the country.

The latest target of the government’s crackdown is Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market where users buy and trade shares tied to the outcomes of future events. Indonesian officials became increasingly concerned after the platform began hosting contracts speculating on when Prabowo could potentially leave office.

On Friday, Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs, operating under the Red and White Cabinet, announced that it had “officially severed access” to Polymarket nationwide. While the ministry did not directly reference the market concerning Prabowo’s presidency, officials stated that the platform violated Indonesian law by facilitating online gambling activities.

“Platforms facilitating money-based betting on specific outcomes or events remain classified as online gambling, even if packaged as a prediction market, including those utilizing blockchain technology or crypto assets,” the ministry said in its official statement.

Indonesia, currently the fourth most populous nation in the world, maintains strict anti-gambling laws despite the persistent growth of online wagering services.

Prabowo, who comes from one of Indonesia’s most influential elite families, secured victory in the 2024 presidential election with nearly 59% of the national vote. His grandfather established the country’s state bank, and Prabowo was previously married to Titiek Suharto, daughter of former President Suharto.

Although Prabowo initially enjoyed strong public approval following his election win, criticism has steadily emerged over several of his economic and political initiatives.

Opponents have voiced concern about his plans to increase centralized state control over Indonesia’s key commodity exports, particularly coal and palm oil. His administration has also faced scrutiny for expensive populist policies, including the rollout of free school meal programs.

As political opposition toward the president increased, Polymarket users began speculating on his ability to remain in office. Traders on the platform estimated only a 1% chance that Prabowo would be removed from office by May 31. The probability rose slightly to 2% by June 30, while contracts tied to the end of the year placed the likelihood at 11%.

Despite attracting only approximately $51,531 in nominal trading volume, the markets drew the attention of Indonesian authorities, ultimately contributing to the government’s decision to block access to the platform.

“The government will not provide any space for any form of online gambling in Indonesia. Activities such as Polymarket contain elements of monetary betting and speculation on events with uncertain outcomes; therefore, they contravene the laws currently in force in Indonesia,” ministry spokesperson Alexander Sabar said.

The ministry also confirmed that it continues reviewing other international prediction market platforms to determine whether additional enforcement actions are necessary.

Indonesia’s broader anti-gambling campaign has expanded rapidly in recent months. Earlier this month, Indonesian National Police arrested 321 foreign nationals accused of operating at least 75 separate online gambling operations. Authorities stated that most of those detained were citizens of Vietnam.

In its closing remarks, the Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs urged Indonesians to avoid participating in digital betting activities altogether.

“The Ministry of Communication and Digital urges the public to refrain from accessing or participating in digital betting-based activities, including those involving crypto assets… The Ministry continues to strengthen its supervision of the digital space and coordinate with law enforcement agencies and relevant stakeholders to ensure that the national digital ecosystem remains safe, healthy, and productive for the public,” the ministry stated.

By fLEXI tEAM