Europe’s Illegal Online Gambling Market Estimated to Reach €13 Billion in 2026

Europe’s illegal online gambling market has grown at an estimated compound annual rate of 18% since 2019 and could reach approximately €13 billion in value by the end of 2026, according to research commissioned by the European Gaming and Amusement Federation and produced by Regulus Partners and Helios.

The study examined black-market online gambling activity across 28 European jurisdictions, including the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus. The research estimated that illegal online gambling generated approximately €12 billion in net revenue during 2025, representing around 25% of the overall European online gambling market.

The research identified a relatively concentrated group of operators within the illegal market. Approximately 25 brands were estimated to account for 64% of black-market traffic across the jurisdictions examined. The group of sites controlled by the same owners accounted for approximately 12% of total traffic, while the largest individual brand accounted for around 10%.

The study identified cryptocurrency payments and international marketing as factors associated with the expansion of offshore gambling operators. It also found that some of the larger operators use licences issued by offshore jurisdictions and corporate structures located outside the markets in which their websites attract customers.

The research distinguished these larger operators from the long tail of smaller illegal gambling websites. Smaller sites were found to rely more heavily on affiliate marketing to generate traffic, while larger operators were able to establish recognisable brands and attract substantial volumes of direct traffic.

The study also examined the relationship between national gambling restrictions and the size of illegal markets. It found that significant advertising restrictions applied in 46% of the markets examined. Consumer taxation was identified as a relevant restriction in 29% of the markets, while banned products were identified in 14%. Five markets were also identified as having monopoly structures that limited consumer choice.

The research noted that restrictions on particular gambling products can affect customers who participate across multiple gambling categories. Where a product is unavailable through licensed operators in a particular jurisdiction, customers may seek access through websites operating outside the regulated market.

France was identified as one example where particular online gambling products remain unavailable to licensed operators. The report also identified several other European jurisdictions in which the number of illegal gambling websites actively marketing to local consumers exceeded the number of locally licensed operators.

The research further examined customer concentration within the illegal market. It estimated that the top 1% of active customers account for almost half of black-market revenue across Europe. The report attributed this concentration to the distribution of online gambling expenditure among a relatively small proportion of highly active customers.

The United Kingdom received specific treatment in the report. The study identified a reduction in channelisation towards licensed operators and associated this with the increased use of affordability checks and other restrictions affecting customers.

The report also examined the effect of changes to UK gambling taxation. The remote gaming duty rate increased from 21% to 40% in April 2026, and the researchers estimated that the measure could contribute to the UK illegal market reaching as much as €1 billion. The study linked this estimate to the potential movement of customers towards unlicensed operators offering gambling products and bonuses that are subject to restrictions in the regulated market.

The UK has historically had a relatively high level of channelisation into licensed gambling services. The report attributed this in part to the maturity of the British online gambling market and the number of licensed operators available to consumers. It identified as many as 1,491 licensed websites providing gambling services to UK consumers.

The research methodology combined several sources of information to estimate the scale of illegal online gambling. Helios examined websites actively marketing to consumers across the 28 jurisdictions between March and May 2026. The analysis was then cross-referenced with SimilarWeb traffic data and information concerning the regulatory conditions applicable in each market.

The researchers also compared the number of websites marketing gambling services in individual jurisdictions with the number of operators holding local licences. France, Portugal, the Netherlands, Germany, Cyprus, Belgium and Spain were among the markets where the research identified substantial numbers of websites operating outside the domestic licensing framework.

The report's estimate of €13 billion for 2026 represents a projection based on the estimated growth rate of the market rather than a confirmed final market value. The underlying 2025 estimate of approximately €12 billion in net revenue was derived from the research methodology combining web traffic, digital marketing and market data.

The study also identified changes in the structure of the illegal market over the period since 2019. According to the research, the market has approximately tripled in value over that period, with the compound annual growth rate reaching approximately 18%.

Cryptocurrency was identified as an important payment method used by offshore operators. The research also noted the use of internationally recognisable brands, marketing and sponsorship arrangements to attract customers in jurisdictions where the operators do not hold local gambling licences. Some operators were found to combine these activities with offshore licensing and corporate structures.

The research concerns the size and characteristics of the illegal online gambling market and does not establish that individual operators identified within the market have committed specific criminal offences. The classification of an operator as part of the black market refers to its operation outside the applicable domestic licensing framework in the jurisdiction examined.

The estimates cover 28 European jurisdictions and therefore do not represent a measurement of every European gambling market. The report's figures are estimates derived from the stated methodology rather than official regulatory statistics for the entire European market.

The study places the estimated value of Europe's illegal online gambling market at approximately €12 billion for 2025 and projects a possible value of up to €13 billion for 2026. It also estimates that the illegal market represents approximately one quarter of the continent's online gambling sector and that a relatively small number of major operators account for a substantial proportion of the traffic identified.

By fLEXI tEAM