Europe Prepares to Trigger UN Sanctions Snapback as Iran Expands Nuclear Program

Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are expected to initiate the process of reimposing United Nations sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program on Thursday, three European officials told CNN on Wednesday. The procedure, known as the “snapback” mechanism and embedded in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, takes 30 days to complete. Officials said the hope is that Tehran will take meaningful steps to halt the sanctions during that window, engaging seriously in diplomatic negotiations and allowing international inspectors access to its facilities.

Iran has warned of severe consequences should the snapback sanctions be enforced. Reuters first reported that the process would likely begin Thursday. Tehran has steadily expanded its nuclear program—maintaining that it is for peaceful purposes—well beyond the limitations set by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), after the United States withdrew from the landmark agreement during President Donald Trump’s first term.

“Going back to the original JCPOA would be almost impossible,” Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said Wednesday.

Diplomatic efforts by the E3 countries—Germany, France, and the UK—to revive negotiations in recent days have reportedly yielded little progress. The ability for these members to trigger snapback sanctions expires in October. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who spoke with his E3 counterparts on Wednesday, described the provision as “a very powerful piece of leverage on the Iranian regime.” The E3 have informed the UN that they will move to reimpose sanctions through the snapback mechanism if Iran continues to violate its obligations under the 2015 deal.

Despite Tehran’s prior ban on cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, inspectors have returned to Iran, according to both Grossi and Iranian officials. Grossi confirmed that inspectors were at the Bushehr nuclear power plant on Wednesday. “Today we are inspecting Bushehr,” he told reporters in Washington, DC. “We are continuing the conversation so that we can go to all places, including the facilities that have been attacked.”

Grossi acknowledged that Iran’s parliament had passed legislation halting cooperation with the agency in response to US-Israeli strikes but noted that “the IAEA and Iran are bound by one thing, which is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), because they are part of that agreement, and a safeguards agreement.” He added, “This safeguards agreement is what dictates what we do, how we do it and where we do it that cannot be changed, unless Iran decides to leave the NPT.”

An Iranian official told CNN last week that withdrawal from the NPT is being considered if snapback sanctions are triggered. Other potential responses include imposing additional limits on Tehran’s cooperation with the IAEA. Grossi emphasized that “there is still time, even if there is the triggering thing, there is a month, and many things could happen.”

Prior to the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran in June, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff had been engaged in intensive diplomatic discussions aimed at securing a new nuclear deal with Tehran. Those talks were curtailed by the outbreak of hostilities. Grossi, who met with both Rubio and Witkoff, said Wednesday that he believes the US remains “open to dialogue, of course, provided that this is meaningful and it leads to concrete agreements.”

During the conflict, Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting retaliatory attacks on Israeli cities, while the US targeted three Iranian sites in the final days of the confrontation. The IAEA withdrew its team from Iran in July, citing the impossibility of inspections during “wartime.”

Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf confirmed the return of UN inspectors during a session on Wednesday, according to state media. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the inspectors were allowed to monitor fuel replacement at the Bushehr nuclear plant following a decision by the Supreme National Security Council. Araghchi denied that any agreement on “new cooperation” had been reached between Iran and the IAEA, according to a post on his Telegram channel.

During the June conflict, Iran accused the IAEA of providing Israel with a pretext for attacks by issuing a report asserting that Tehran was not complying with its safeguard obligations under the NPT, designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons through rigorous inspections. Israel launched its strikes a day before scheduled negotiations between Iran and the US over Tehran’s nuclear program, which have since stalled with no clear timeline for resumption.

Kamran Ghazanfari, a member of Iran’s parliament, criticized Ghalibaf’s remarks in the legislative session suggesting inspectors could be allowed into Bushehr and a Tehran research site. He argued that such a decision would be an “explicit violation” of the law “obliging the government to suspend cooperation with the agency.”

On Tuesday, Iranian negotiators met with representatives from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom in Geneva in a bid to prevent the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran.

By fLEXI tEAM