Citigroup Sees Seasonal Dip in Macau Gaming Activity as Demand Remains Firm

Citigroup has reaffirmed its constructive view on Macau’s gaming industry, indicating that the softer performance observed in March is primarily seasonal and does not reflect any fundamental deterioration in demand. The assessment follows the bank’s latest proprietary table survey conducted in March 2026, which suggests that recent concerns about a slowdown may be overstated.

According to the bank, perceptions of weakening momentum are likely influenced by recency bias, as the previous survey was carried out during the Chinese New Year period, a time traditionally associated with heightened gaming activity. Historical trends, Citigroup noted, show that March is typically a more normalized month for gross gaming revenue (GGR) on a daily basis. The latest figures continue to demonstrate solid year-on-year improvements across several key indicators, reinforcing projections for low-to-mid teens GGR growth in the first quarter of 2026.

Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau highlighted that the average wager per Premium Mass player increased by 17 percent year-on-year to HK$20,689 ($2,643) in March, up from HK$17,611 ($2,249) in the same month last year. Total wagers recorded reached HK$11.2 million ($1.43 million), remaining broadly unchanged compared to a year earlier, while the number of Premium Mass players fell by 16 percent to 543. Despite the decline in player volume, the rise in spending per individual effectively compensated for the drop, signaling continued strength among higher-value customers.

In its so-called ‘whale watch’ analysis, Citigroup identified 25 high-rolling players during the month, an increase from 20 recorded in March 2025. The standout ‘Player of the Month’ was located at Galaxy Macau’s Horizon Room, with wagers totaling HK$350,000 ($44,700). Additional notable high-stakes activity was observed at The Venetian Macao and at Galaxy Macau’s Pavilion North, where individual players each wagered approximately HK$300,000 ($38,300).

The bank further explained that the perceived softness relative to the Chinese New Year period aligns with established seasonal patterns. The average Premium Mass wager per player in March was 30 percent lower than the HK$29,625 ($3,784) recorded during Chinese New Year 2026, a decline consistent with historical drops of 33 percent in 2025 and 30 percent in 2024. Likewise, the number of whales decreased by 47 percent compared to the holiday period, broadly in line with prior reductions of 59 percent and 51 percent over the past two years. Citigroup reiterated that, despite these seasonal declines, both metrics showed year-on-year improvement.

Operator performance data revealed that Galaxy Entertainment Group reclaimed the leading position in the Premium Mass segment with a 32 percent market share, although this marked a decrease from 36 percent a year earlier. Sands China secured second place with a 21 percent share, rising from 18 percent in the previous year.

Citigroup also pointed to potential investment opportunities in Sands China following a recent pullback in its share price, suggesting that the market may be “overly pessimistic” about the company’s prospects for EBITDA recovery.

Across the broader market, average minimum bets for mass baccarat increased by 3 percent year-on-year to HK$2,028 ($259). Within the Cotai region, minimum bets rose by 6 percent to HK$2,192 ($280), while Macau’s peninsula experienced a 7 percent decline to HK$1,540 ($197). Additional observations included ongoing renovation work at MGM Cotai’s high-limit gaming area, which has temporarily reduced overall gaming capacity.

By fLEXI tEAM