Brazil’s Gambling Market Shows Promise Amid Political Uncertainty

Brazil has emerged in recent years as one of the world’s most promising gambling markets. The formal regulation of sports betting in 2023 and the introduction of a licensing system laid the groundwork for rapid industry growth. Yet, political tensions and shifting positions from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have created an environment of uncertainty about the sector’s future.

A pivotal moment for the Brazilian gambling landscape came in December 2023 with the signing of Law No. 14.790, which formally regulated online sports betting. The legislation established a licensing system for operators and introduced a 12% tax on operator revenues, with a portion of the revenue earmarked to fund sports, education, and programs to prevent addiction. The regulation had long been awaited, as the market had previously operated in a grey zone, with foreign operators offering services to Brazilian players without formal authorization. The law marked the beginning of the process of building one of the largest regulated sports betting markets globally.

The regulatory path of Brazil’s gambling industry had long been influenced by the policies of former president Jair Bolsonaro. In office from 2019 to 2022, Bolsonaro consistently opposed the legalization of gambling, citing social risks such as addiction, family debt, and increased crime. In February 2022, he vowed to veto a bill legalizing casinos and other gambling activities if it passed the Senate. Bolsonaro’s administration also failed to fully regulate sports betting, leaving the sector partially uncontrolled. Today, Bolsonaro remains outside the political scene, imprisoned and barred from political activity.

The rise of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva initially suggested a more pragmatic approach to the gambling industry. The signing of the sports betting regulation law in 2023 was seen as a stabilizing step, though Lula vetoed part of the provisions concerning taxes on player winnings. Over time, however, his stance shifted. Following a football match-fixing scandal in November 2024, he signaled the possibility of stricter regulation, stating, “If I am in favor of games if they are well regulated; if regulation does not work, I see no problem in banning it.” Observers interpreted this as a warning that the government might impose further restrictions.

Lula’s strongest criticism of the sector came in March 2026. During a televised address on International Women’s Day, he denounced online gambling games, including the widely circulated “Jogo do Tigrinho,” a crash game accessible via social media and messaging apps. He said, “Casinos are banned in Brazil, it makes no sense to allow Jogo do Tigrinho to enter homes through mobile phones, indebting families through mobile phones. We will work with the government, Congress and the Court so that these digital casinos do not destroy homes.” He tied the rapid growth of the betting industry to broader societal concerns, highlighting the ease with which minors can access gambling platforms and the growing visibility of betting brands in mainstream media and football. He also criticized operators who resisted higher taxes, suggesting that such opposition reflected deeper systemic issues in the industry.

“The casino entered our homes and bets are everywhere. A 10-year-old child can take their father’s phone and gamble due to this quantity of betting platforms that are out there, which is taking over football and advertising,” the president said. He further warned, “Men lose money on gambling that should go to food and rent; women and children suffer.” These remarks marked a clear shift in tone from regulating the market to condemning its social consequences.

The timing of Lula’s rhetoric is closely tied to Brazil’s 2026 election year. The presidential election is scheduled for October 4, with a possible second round on October 25. While the campaign officially begins in August, political debate is already heating up. Lula’s popularity hovers around 30–35%, weaker than in his previous terms, yet he remains a frontrunner thanks to strong support from left-leaning voters. Gambling has emerged as a politically polarizing issue, with critics accusing Lula of inconsistency in his approach to regulation, while the government emphasizes the need to protect society from the harms of an uncontrolled market.

Despite his criticisms, Lula has not rejected the idea of a regulated gambling market entirely. On March 5, 2026, he responded positively to a proposal to allocate taxes from sports betting to fund public security, including police operations. This move demonstrates that the government still views gambling as a potential revenue source while highlighting the inherent contradiction in Brazilian policy: the state seeks to benefit from tax income but increasingly emphasizes the social risks posed by gambling.

Brazil remains one of the world’s most attractive gambling markets, with over 200 million residents and a strong passion for sports, particularly football. Yet, the sector is developing amid considerable regulatory uncertainty. Political tensions, evolving government positions, and growing societal pressures mean the future of the market is far from certain. Regulations could be expanded, modified, or tightened depending on election outcomes and shifts in policy under future administrations. For operators and investors, Brazil represents a market of enormous potential—but one characterized by significant regulatory risk, where the stability of rules may prove just as critical as the market’s sheer size.

By fLEXI tEAM