Brazil Confirms Gradual Increase to 18% GGR Tax as Government Finalizes Betting Framework

Brazil has settled on an 18% tax rate for fixed-odds betting operators, marking the latest and most significant fiscal adjustment in the country’s newly formed gambling regime.

The decision follows today’s approval by the Senate’s Committee of Economic Affairs (CAE), which endorsed the plan to lift the gross gaming revenue (GGR) tax from the existing 12% to 18% through a phased process beginning in 2026.

Under the CAE-approved proposal, the tax rate will rise to 15% by 2027 and then progress to the full 18% by 2028. This incremental approach replaces the earlier consideration of raising the levy to 24%, a doubling that entered the debate after the PT government failed to pass a broader tax hike in Congress in October. That setback sent the fiscal measure back to the Senate, where lawmakers merged it with a new tax package aimed at fintech services in order to keep President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s fiscal programme intact.

Economic projections suggest that the combined reforms — covering both betting and fintech operations — could deliver roughly R$5 billion in federal revenue annually beginning in 2026. Despite adjustments made during the legislative process, the initiative continues to enjoy the backing of President Lula and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, who regard the tax hike as the final fiscal mechanism needed to secure funding for expanded social welfare programmes. Lula has already allocated R$300 billion for social spending in 2026, calling it “the largest social-investment package in Brazil’s history.”

Finance Minister Haddad, a key figure in designing Brazil’s modern gambling framework, had to pivot earlier this year after strong resistance in Congress forced him to abandon plans to raise the IOF financial-transaction tax. He later turned to taxing “bets,” describing it as a more politically pragmatic and attainable route.

Following CAE approval, the bill now advances to the Chamber of Deputies. If no senator demands a plenary review within five days, the proposal will bypass a full Senate vote and move directly to the lower house. There, lawmakers will conduct a new round of committee examinations before holding a final plenary vote. Any changes introduced by the Chamber will require Senate confirmation.

The agreement on an 18% GGR tax caps a tumultuous inaugural year for Brazil’s “Bets” regulatory regime — a period defined by the launch of the fixed-odds and online gambling market and by operators having to adjust to stringent new rules covering bonuses, promotional incentives, and the prohibition on targeting low-income Bolsa Família beneficiaries.

Looking ahead to 2026, officials are expected to tackle several unresolved issues, including the creation of a national self-exclusion register and the development of a dedicated legislative framework for online gambling advertising. Meanwhile, the Chamber of Deputies is preparing to resume suspended discussions on PL 2,234/2022 — the long-debated “casino bill” that aims to legalize and regulate land-based casinos under a federal system.

With major policy decisions still unsettled and political conditions evolving rapidly, Brazil is poised to remain one of the global gambling industry’s most unpredictable — and closely watched — markets in the year ahead.

By fLEXI tEAM