UN Warns of Global Job Losses as Trump’s Trade War Stifles Economic Growth

Millions of jobs around the world are expected to be lost in 2025 due to the global economic slowdown sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war, according to a report released Wednesday by the United Nations. The International Labor Organization (ILO), a UN agency dedicated to promoting labor rights and social justice, forecasts that only 53 million jobs will be created globally in 2025 — a staggering 7 million fewer than what had previously been projected. The sharp downward revision stems from mounting economic uncertainty triggered by widespread trade disruptions and growing geopolitical tensions.

The ILO’s analysis is closely aligned with a revised economic outlook published by the International Monetary Fund in April. In its report, the IMF downgraded global GDP growth for 2025 to 2.8%, a notable drop from its earlier forecast of 3.2%. The IMF attributed this shift to the instability introduced by President Trump’s escalating tariff measures targeting U.S. trading partners. In particular, the ILO emphasized the potential ripple effects of Trump’s tariffs, highlighting how deeply enmeshed global labor markets are with U.S. consumer behavior.

According to the ILO, an estimated 84 million jobs in 71 countries are “directly or indirectly linked to U.S. consumer demand” and are therefore exposed to elevated risk due to American trade policy. The Asia-Pacific region faces the most acute threat, with approximately 56 million jobs vulnerable to changes in U.S. demand. Additionally, more than 13 million jobs in Canada and Mexico are at risk. “Workers linked to consumption and investment demand in the US… now face an increased risk of partial or total loss of income due to higher tariffs and the unpredictable nature of future trade measures,” the ILO said in its statement.

Since his re-election in January, President Trump has taken an aggressive stance on trade, raising import tariffs on a wide range of products and against a long list of trading partners. Key sectors such as automotive manufacturing and steel have been hit particularly hard. The White House has set July 9 as the deadline for implementing sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” unless trade agreements can be secured with individual countries. The president’s approach, marked by rapid shifts in policy and inconsistent enforcement, has injected deep uncertainty into the global economic landscape. Businesses and investors alike are now grappling with the consequences of what many describe as an erratic trade environment.

The ILO report suggests that this pervasive instability is already influencing corporate behavior. With businesses unsure of future trade rules and market access, employers are becoming increasingly hesitant to expand their workforce. “Employers may be ‘more cautious’ about hiring new workers in such an uncertain environment,” the report notes. The combination of weaker economic prospects, elevated trade risks, and uncertain geopolitical developments is proving to be a significant drag on job creation.

“We know that the global economy is growing at a slower pace than we had anticipated,” said Gilbert Houngbo, director-general of the ILO. “If geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions continue… then they will certainly have negative impacts on labor markets around the world.” The statement underscores the ILO’s concern that the labor market fallout could persist — or even worsen — if trade tensions escalate or remain unresolved in the coming months.

By fLEXI tEAM