Oil Prices Slip but Head Toward Weekly Gains Amid Demand Concerns and Russian Supply Uncertainty

Crude oil prices eased on Friday but remained on track to post weekly gains, as markets weighed declining demand in the United States at the close of the summer season against ongoing uncertainty surrounding Russian exports.

Brent crude futures for October delivery, expiring on Friday, slipped 53 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $68.09 a barrel at 0251 GMT. The more actively traded November contract lost 48 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $67.50. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 51 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $64.09. Brent is poised to finish the week up 0.6 percent, while WTI is on course for a 0.8 percent gain.

Earlier gains this week were fueled by Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil export terminals, combined with heightened geopolitical tensions after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed Thursday that no meeting would take place between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Yet prices have faced downward pressure from the approaching end of the U.S. summer driving season, which concludes with the Labor Day holiday on Monday, as well as increased output from major producers winding down voluntary cuts.

“We expect rising OPEC+ supply and a seasonal fall in global refining activity from September will result in a pick-up in global oil stockpiles in coming months. We forecast Brent oil futures falling to $63/bbl in Q4 2025,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodities analyst Vivek Dhar wrote in a note.

Russian missile strikes on Kyiv early Thursday that left 23 people dead have also stirred fears of further retaliation, with speculation that Washington may pursue tighter sanctions.

“Uncertainty lingers over whether U.S. and Europe may tighten sanctions against Russia following its attack on Ukraine, and over the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on India, making investors reluctant to take large positions,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, a subsidiary of Nissan Securities.

Markets are monitoring India closely as the country faces growing U.S. pressure to halt purchases of Russian crude. This follows President Donald Trump’s move Wednesday to double tariffs on Indian imports to as high as 50 percent. Nevertheless, traders report that Russian oil shipments to India are expected to increase in September, signaling defiance of Washington’s demands.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, may lower its October prices for Asian buyers amid signs of oversupply and weakening consumption, according to refining industry sources.

Russian crude flows through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia have also resumed after a disruption caused by a Ukrainian strike in Russia last week, Hungarian oil company MOL and Slovakia’s economy minister confirmed Thursday.

By fLEXI tEAM