New surveys reveal that business activity in the euro zone experienced a more substantial decline than anticipated in August, with Germany witnessing a particularly rapid slide. Alongside this decline, there are indications of returning inflationary pressures. These developments pose complexities for the European Central Bank (ECB), which aims to curb persistent price increases while avoiding a recession.
The recent Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, released on Wednesday, present a challenging scenario for the ECB as it navigates the delicate balance between managing inflation and economic growth. The ECB is anticipated to halt interest rate hikes in September, as suggested by a majority of economists polled by Reuters. This stance comes despite elevated inflation rates. However, a further increase in interest rates by the end of the year remains plausible due to the central bank's assertive policy tightening cycle.
Mark Wall, Chief European Economist at Deutsche Bank, emphasized that the declining PMI data will put the ECB's growth optimism to the test. He noted, "We are expecting the ECB to pause in September, but it is not clear that inflation is where the ECB wants it yet. A pause should not be misinterpreted as the peak."
The services sector, a significant pillar of the euro zone economy, faced its first contraction this year, while the manufacturing output continued to contract. Notably, there were indications of a potential upturn in manufacturing activity.
The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the euro zone, a comprehensive gauge of economic health, dropped to 47.0 in August from July's 48.6. This figure, well below the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction, was lower than anticipated by a Reuters poll, which had predicted a slight dip to 48.5.
The declining activity was partially influenced by firms completing old orders, leading to a decline in the backlogs of work index. Germany, the region's largest economy, experienced the fastest contraction in business activity in over three years. The downturn in manufacturing was accompanied by a renewed contraction in the services sector. Pessimism about the future persisted due to rising interest rates, customer uncertainty, and high inflation dampening demand.
Similarly, the services sector in France contracted further due to drops in demand and new orders, signaling a potential economic contraction in the euro zone's second-largest economy this quarter.
In the context of these developments, the UK, operating outside the European Union, faces its own economic challenges. The PMI for the UK indicated a decline in factory output and broader weakness, raising concerns about the possibility of a recession.
The declining services PMI in the euro zone can be attributed to indebted consumers scaling back spending amidst rising borrowing costs. The sharp fall in demand is exacerbated by rapidly rising prices, deterring customers. Although the services output prices index remains elevated at 55.9, it marks a decline from previous months.
Bert Colijn at ING noted, "Another weak PMI for the euro zone confirms a sluggish economy with recession as a downside risk." He emphasized that persistent inflationary pressures and wage concerns add weight to expectations that the ECB's interest rate hike cycle is far from concluded.
Inflation, as indicated by official data, was 5.3 percent in July, exceeding the ECB's target of 2 percent. While manufacturing activity has experienced a decline since mid-2022, the latest PMI figures offer a glimmer of hope, suggesting that the worst might be behind. The headline index saw an uptick to 43.7 from 42.7, its first increase in seven months. This uptick defied expectations of a decline to 42.6, as predicted by the Reuters poll. Optimism among factory purchasing managers also improved, indicating a potential upturn for manufacturers.
By fLEXI tEAM