UBS Flags Greece Among Europe’s Most Exposed Economies to Trump’s Proposed US Tariffs

In its latest report released on July 15, Swiss multinational financial services firm UBS has placed Greece among the European economies most vulnerable to the 30 percent tariffs proposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

The tariffs, expected to be implemented on August 1, could pose both direct and indirect challenges to Greece’s export-driven sectors, UBS warns.

The analysis positions Greece in Group B, alongside Hungary and the United Arab Emirates, where between 60 to 75 percent of exports to the United States are likely to be impacted by the new trade measures. These figures stand in contrast to Group A countries—Czech Republic, Poland, and Turkey—where up to 90 percent of exports may be affected.

UBS points out that Greece's export structure heightens its exposure, as the proposed tariffs target sectors where the country maintains a competitive edge, notably chemicals, pharmaceuticals, agricultural goods, and processed industrial products. The firm notes that the proposed policy "does not include any exemptions or differentiated tariff rates," further compounding potential risks for exporters.

Among the simulations presented in the UBS study, Greece is projected to face a GDP reduction of 15 to 20 basis points in the event of a hypothetical 10 percent tariff hike. This places the country just behind the Czech Republic and Hungary, where the estimated economic contraction reaches 25 to 30 basis points. Turkey and the UAE follow with a projected impact of around 10 basis points, while most other economies in the EMEA region are expected to feel less than a 10 basis point effect.

The report underscores several structural challenges for Greece in responding to the tariffs.

As a member of the European Union, Greece lacks the autonomy to negotiate bilateral trade exemptions with the United States. Moreover, the predominance of small-scale firms in its export economy limits the agility of Greek businesses in adjusting their sales or logistics strategies.

UBS also highlights the narrow composition of Greece’s export base as a key vulnerability.

“Greece’s export base is also heavily concentrated in a few sectors—mainly food, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals—making it particularly vulnerable to broad trade restrictions,” the report states. While the United States is not among Greece’s top trade partners in volume, it remains a significant destination for niche, high-value products, according to UBS.

Looking forward, the financial firm identifies several critical factors that will determine Greece’s ability to mitigate the tariffs' impact. These include “the EU’s ability to negotiate targeted exemptions,” “how quickly Greek businesses can pivot to alternative markets (e.g., Asia or the Middle East),” and “whether companies can enhance the value-added component of their products to reduce tariff exposure or achieve strategic status.”

The economic repercussions are expected to unfold gradually. UBS forecasts a cumulative negative impact on Greek GDP of -0.1 percent in 2025, rising to -0.15 percentage points in 2026. The firm explains that the delayed effects reflect the continued operation of current trade agreements through 2025, with more pronounced disruptions anticipated the following year.

The consequences for the broader economy are likely to be indirect, UBS notes, as weakened exports and manufacturing output ripple into reduced domestic demand and investment. A potential dip in export revenues may also harm the profitability of publicly traded Greek manufacturers with significant exposure to the U.S. market.

Despite the headwinds, UBS maintains a generally positive medium-term growth outlook for Greece. The country’s GDP is projected to grow by 2.6 percent in 2025, slowing to 2.3 percent in 2026 and 1.9 percent in 2027. “The impact on the economy is expected to be mostly indirect, transmitted from a weakened manufacturing and export sector to reduced domestic demand and business investment,” the report reiterates.

In nominal terms, Greece's GDP is expected to hit $286 billion (€249 billion) in 2025, rising to $311 billion (€259 billion) by 2026. Per capita GDP is forecast to reach $30,038 by 2026, marking a continued convergence with the broader Eurozone average.

By fLEXI tEAM