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Amid escalating tensions between the United States and China, reports indicate that the U.S. is in the process of formulating sanctions that could potentially sever ties between certain Chinese banks and the global financial system. This strategic maneuver is seen as a bid to arm Washington's top diplomat, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, with diplomatic leverage aimed at curbing Beijing's commercial support for Russia's military production in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Sources familiar with the matter have shed light on these developments.
As Secretary Blinken gears up for a pivotal diplomatic visit to Beijing, the effectiveness of employing one of America's most potent financial coercion tools looms large. The central question at hand is whether such measures can significantly impact the intricate and burgeoning trade dynamics between Beijing and Moscow. This robust trade relationship has played a pivotal role in facilitating the Kremlin's efforts to rebuild its military capabilities, which had been severely depleted by over two years of conflict in Ukraine.
Despite persistent Western admonitions against direct arms support to Russia, China has noticeably ramped up its exports of commercial goods with potential military applications. Despite Blinken's prior diplomatic engagement in Beijing aimed at addressing these concerns, China's pivotal role as the primary supplier of critical components like circuitry, aircraft parts, and machinery to Moscow has only strengthened, further enabling Russia's military-industrial revival.
The Western world is now grappling with mounting apprehension over the possibility of Russia gaining an upper hand in a protracted war of attrition against Ukraine, particularly if Western allies fail to match Russia's production capabilities. Blinken and other high-ranking officials have been actively sounding the alarm among Western allies, emphasizing the urgent need for coordinated action. This sentiment was recently echoed at a gathering of the Group of Seven industrialized nations in Capri, Italy.
As Blinken embarks on his diplomatic mission to China, American officials are banking on the threat of Chinese banks losing access to the US dollar and the potential disruption of trade ties with Europe to compel Beijing to reassess its stance. Chinese banks play a pivotal role as intermediaries in facilitating commercial exports to Russia, handling payments, and extending credit to client companies.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has underscored the risks faced by banks engaged in transactions that bolster Russia's defence industry, cautioning against the possibility of US sanctions against such entities. However, resorting to sanctions against Chinese financial institutions is viewed as a measure of last resort, given the significant ramifications it could have on global trade and financial stability.
Past attempts to pressure Chinese banks through sanctions have encountered obstacles, as major institutions withdrew from facilitating deals involving Russia's military-industrial complex. However, smaller regional banks have emerged to fill the void, exhibiting lesser vulnerability to the impact of US sanctions.
Despite diplomatic efforts, trade in dual-use goods critical for Russia's military capabilities has surged, enabling the Kremlin to significantly bolster its weapons production and defence capabilities. China's role as a crucial supplier to Russia has drawn increasing scrutiny, with concerns mounting over the strategic implications of their deepening trade ties.
Washington's European allies have approached the issue with caution, citing the significance of their financial and trade relationships with China. However, there are indications of a shifting stance, with calls for greater scrutiny of dual-use exports and acknowledgment of China's pivotal role in shaping ongoing conflict dynamics.
The United States perceives Europe's leverage over Beijing, particularly in financial and trade domains, as a promising avenue for addressing the issue. Leveraging the dominance of the dollar and euro in the financial system could offer a strategic approach to tackling the complex challenges posed by China's support for Russia's military endeavours.
In the words of Secretary Blinken during the Group of Seven meeting in Capri, "China can't have it both ways. It can't purport to want to have positive friendly relations with countries in Europe, and at the same time be fuelling the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War."
By fLEXI tEAM