The ongoing Red Sea crisis, causing disruptions in global trade routes, is poised to impact corporate earnings across various sectors as businesses grapple with rising operating costs and supply chain pressures. The heightened risk of attacks by Houthi fighters in the Red Sea has led to more than 2,300 ships taking lengthy detours, impacting over 12% of the world's maritime trade.
Major companies are already feeling the pinch, with electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla announcing a two-week production halt at its German plant due to shipment delays. Volvo Car has similarly declared a three-day work stoppage at its Belgian facility. British retailers Tesco, Marks & Spencer, and Next have highlighted the potential for higher prices for consumers.
The shipping and insurance sectors are experiencing contrasting fortunes. While container rates have surged by up to 300% on some routes, benefiting carriers like AP Moller-Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, ZIM Integrated Shipping, and Mitsui OSK Lines, insurance companies are expected to see premiums rise substantially on certain sea routes.
Logistics companies, particularly those in air transport, are predicted to be significant winners. David Vernon of Sanford C Bernstein and Co. notes that the airline industry, including FedEx, United Parcel Service, and DHL Group, stands to gain as companies explore alternative transport options.
In the retail sector, companies heavily reliant on shipping from Asia, such as Next, Primark, Hennes & Mauritz, Inditex, and Maisons du Monde, face heightened vulnerability. Passing on increased costs to consumers becomes challenging, potentially impacting profit margins.
The automotive industry has seen production halts from Tesla and Volvo Car, and although challenges are expected, analysts believe the sector may not face as severe disruptions as during the pandemic. Higher fuel costs, increased container rental days, and elevated freight rates could impact margins, but the crisis might also enable automakers to maintain higher vehicle prices.
In the energy sector, the impact on crude prices has been limited so far. Still, concerns arise about potential supply shortages if the conflict in the Red Sea persists. Oil markets are preparing for potential disruptions as fewer tankers cross the Bab el-Mandeb strait, with a 25% year-on-year decline in ships carrying crude or petroleum products.
As the crisis unfolds, businesses are bracing for the possibility of continued disruptions affecting corporate earnings, prompting analysts to revise their forecasts in various sectors.
By fLEXI tEAM