Macau Government Lowers 2025 Gaming Revenue Forecast Amid Market Caution

The Macau government has formally revised its 2025 fiscal budget, trimming its annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast from MOP240 billion (US$30 billion) to MOP228 billion (US$28.4 billion), marking a 5 percent decrease as authorities adjust projections to reflect the prevailing economic environment and current performance of the city’s gaming sector.

Secretary for Administration and Justice André Cheong confirmed the proposed budget modification, stating that it would be reviewed by the Legislative Assembly. The government aims to ensure the continuous operation of public administration departments while supporting newly launched policy initiatives under the current administration.

The revised GGR projection comes in response to what officials described as a realistic reassessment of the economy and industry performance since the start of the year. According to data reported by Asia Gaming Brief (AGB), gaming taxes remained a vital source of income, accounting for 87.7 percent of the Macau government’s total revenue over the first four months of 2025.

Under the updated fiscal framework, the total comprehensive budget revenue for 2025 is now forecast at MOP116.53 billion (US$14.5 billion), while total public expenditure is expected to reach MOP116.24 billion (US$14.5 billion). Notably, the government’s Investment and Development Expenditure Plan has also been revised downward to MOP19.59 billion (US$2.4 billion).

The Legislative Assembly’s approval will be required before the revised budget can be enacted. The new plan reflects Macau’s broader strategy to pursue fiscal discipline while maintaining momentum in long-term economic development, particularly as the region’s gaming industry undergoes structural and regulatory transformation.

Commenting on the revised GGR forecast, an investment bank analyst told AGB that the adjustment was “unsurprising,” noting that gross gaming revenue has grown only 1.7 percent year-on-year so far. The same analyst remarked that the revision would likely be a “non-event” for financial markets.

Looking ahead, market research from Seaport anticipates a 4 percent increase in Macau’s total gaming revenue for 2025, with the second half of the year expected to drive stronger gains—6.1 percent growth compared to 2 percent in the first half. “Growth should be driven by increased marketing efforts by operators and improving consumer trends in China,” Seaport wrote in its latest industry report.

Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky emphasized that ongoing stimulus efforts and policy backing from Beijing could further strengthen consumer confidence, adding support to Macau’s gaming rebound. Umansky suggested that such conditions may foster a healthier recovery in consumer spending across mainland China, with positive spillover effects for Macau’s integrated resorts.

For the medium-term outlook, Seaport projects that Macau’s GGR could expand by around 7 percent annually in 2026 and 2027. However, this trajectory remains heavily dependent on China’s overall economic performance and the pace at which consumer sentiment recovers.

Despite geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing concerns surrounding gaming revenue growth, Seaport noted that valuations for Macau’s gaming stocks are still relatively low. According to the research firm, this valuation gap presents “continued risk-reward opportunities” for investors. However, they acknowledged that stock performance has remained muted over the past year, even as operational indicators for Macau’s gaming sector continue to improve.

By fLEXI tEAM