Greece will resume primary surpluses in 2023 and continue on a path to pay down its public debt, according to the IMF's Fiscal Monitor report, which was published on Wednesday.
The Fund forecasts primary deficits of 1.8% this year and 5.5% in 2021, with a primary surplus of 0.9% of GDP in 2023 and a rise to 2% in 2027.
The general government balance, which includes capital payments on debt, will show a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2023, down from a shortfall of 4.4% this year, and then decline to 0.7% in 2027, according to the research.
Public expenditure is anticipated to decrease from 52% this year to 48% in 2023 and to 44.3% in 2027, while public revenue is anticipated to decrease from 47.6% of GDP this year to 45.9% in 2023 and to 43.6% in 2027.
An estimated decrease in the general government debt from 199.4% of GDP in 2021 to 177.6% this year, 169.8% in 2023, and 149.9% in 2027.
The IMF predicted that Greece will retain its gross domestic product in positive territory in 2019, despite the fact that more than a third of the world economy is anticipated to enter a recession this year or in 2023.
In contrast to the government's projection of 5.3% and its own forecast of 3.5% made in June, the Fund expects the GDP to expand by 5.2% this year in the context of the Article IV report, since primarily tourism improved the statistics.
However, it predicts that growth will only be 0.7% annually in the fourth quarter.
Greece's prognosis for 2023 is 1.8%, down from its earlier estimate of 2.6% and the government's estimate of 2.1%.
It predicts that the pace will have increased to 7.5% by the fourth quarter of 2023. This indicates that by the time it reaches the average of 1.8% in 2023, the first three months of the year would be on the verge of stagnation, if not showing a negative sign at some point.
According to the Greek government's proposed 2023 budget, which was published earlier in October, the country's economy would expand at a slower rate in 2023 following a robust recovery this year that was mostly supported by the tourist industry. The country's economic production is predicted to grow by 2.1% from 5.3% this year in the next year.
The 2023 budget was created in conditions of exceptionally high uncertainty about geopolitical events globally, according to Finance Minister Christos Staikouras and Alternate Minister Theodoros Skylakakis after the draft plan was presented to Parliament.
The new budget aims to address issues including the energy crisis, pressures from inflation on businesses and individuals, the health problem, and more defense spending.
According to the ministers, it is also intended to promote several changes while preserving fiscal balance and meeting objectives for sustainable growth.
By fLEXI tEAM