Federal Reserve's December Meeting: Navigating Policy Shifts Amid Economic Uncertainty

In the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December 12-13 meeting, officials engaged in a comprehensive and expansive discussion regarding the imminent shift in U.S. monetary policy. There were growing concerns about the sustainability of the economy under the weight of existing high-interest rates. Additionally, initial talks were initiated about when to halt the reduction of the central bank's balance sheet. This meeting followed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, where he outlined that the central bank was likely finished with interest rate hikes and anticipated a reduction in borrowing costs by the end of 2024.

While the minutes did not explicitly reveal when rate cuts might commence, they indicated a rising consensus within the Federal Reserve that inflation was under control. Simultaneously, there was a growing worry about the potential risks associated with what was described as "overly restrictive" monetary policy on the broader economy. The minutes captured a transition from earlier in the year when the Fed was uncertain about the extent of measures needed to control inflation. Powell had even warned of potential "pain" on the horizon. However, the year concluded with inflation falling at a faster rate than initially expected, fostering optimism among policymakers that they could manage inflation without triggering a recession.

Discussions during the meeting extended to the topic of when to halt the reduction of the Fed's asset holdings. This signaled a potential shift in policy, reminiscent of the impact of rate hikes, which had also been constraining economic activity as part of the Fed's strategy against the most significant inflation breakout in 40 years. Participants in the meeting pointed to the decline in inflation throughout 2023, specifically highlighting the recent shift down in six-month inflation readings. Notably, the minutes revealed that, for the first time since June 2022, policymakers did not use the phrase "unacceptably high" to describe inflation.

Examining economic indicators, the core personal consumption expenditures price index on a six-month basis through November remained just below the Fed's 2% target. Despite lingering risks and concerns that the Fed might have received all possible help from improved supply chains to lower inflation, participants viewed the overall risk of renewed inflation as having diminished. However, a few Fed officials raised a new concern – the potential "tradeoff" between controlling inflation and maintaining high rates of employment, a delicate balance Powell has pledged to uphold.

This particular concern had been conspicuously absent from recent Fed debates, suggesting a growing sense that the economy could still face challenges despite the hope for a "soft landing" from high inflation. Some participants noted the risk that, if labor demand weakens substantially further, the labor market could quickly shift from a gradual easing to a more abrupt downshift in conditions.

Projections from the December meeting indicated that nearly all Fed officials expect the benchmark policy rate to be lower by the end of 2024, with a majority foreseeing a reduction by at least three-quarters of a percentage point. Following the release of the minutes, U.S. stocks slightly reduced losses, but the dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies, and U.S. Treasury yields remained relatively unchanged.

Traders of interest rate futures maintained their bets that the Federal Open Market Committee would begin cutting rates in March. The policy rate was expected to end the year in the 3.75%-4.00% range, representing a 1.5 percentage point decrease from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%, which has been in place since July.

While the minutes provided limited direct insight into when rate cuts might commence, participants acknowledged an "unusually elevated degree of uncertainty" about the economic outlook, leaving room for further rate increases. Nevertheless, "most" felt that monetary policy was having its intended impact on inflation by dampening household and business spending, ultimately pulling inflation back toward the target. Future policy decisions were described as "careful and data-dependent." The Federal Reserve is set to convene again on January 30-31.

By fLEXI tEAM