Two more uncertainties are that the special aid measures will stop, as well as that the accumulated savings spent this year can not be maintained for a long time.
The key elements of the report of the Office of the Parliament for the monitoring of the budget, presented its head, Frangiskos Kountetakis, in the Committee of Finance, during the discussion of the draft budget of 2022.
Barometer for the economy estimated that the fluctuation of inflation will be , because it can change the attitude of central banks worldwide, in terms of interest rates.
Mr. Koutentakis, referring to the macroeconomic forecasts for 2021, said that the growth rate is at 6.1% and for 2022 at 4.5% and that for next year will depend on two opposing forces and how they will work.
As he said, the one force that will work negatively, is that the special measures implemented in 2021 will cease to be applied, as well as that the accumulated savings that were spent this year and contributed significantly to the high growth rate, can not be maintained for a long time. .
On the other hand, he noted, there are also positive forces, such as the normalization of economic activity and the use of the resources of the Recovery Fund that can contribute positively to the overall growth rate.
For the budget forecasts of the draft, he estimated that the picture for the current year is unfavorable, as a primary deficit of about 7.5% of GDP is not something pleasant.
“Obviously this is due to the implementation of a series of specific fiscal measures that had to do with pandemic management,” he said, adding that a very significant improvement in primary conditions of 2022 is expected, of 6.2% to 6.8%. GDP and this is about 11 billion euros, coming from 4.6 billion in revenue and 6.4 billion in expenditure.
Regarding the budget uncertainties, he said that no one can know for sure what will happen. Therefore, an important issue is the evolution of the pandemic and the speed of recovery of the Greek economy in equilibrium relations.
Regarding inflation, the head of the Office said that “the most serious risk is that if inflation continues to rise globally, because it could cause a change in the attitude of central banks worldwide.”
This will be, said Mr. Koutentakis, “a major change in the monetary conditions, that is, from the conditions of low inflation and very low, sometimes negative interest rates, we will move to another regime that will have a major disruption on a global scale, which we do not know how it will develop “.
To the uncertainties, the head of the Parliamentary Office added the recovery of tax revenues, explaining “that there is a parameter called scarring, ie that some effects of a temporary disruption can become permanent and companies that have ceased operations for an extended period pandemic may never be able to reopen. “These legal or natural persons, depending on what business they are, will be completely incapable of serving their obligations.”