Growth of 1.8% in 2020 in Turkey … due to banks
Israel and Egypt are trying to open energy-focused bridges with Turkey .
There are various estimates that in the Eastern Mediterranean region gas reserves are 70 trillion cubic feet or about 1.5% of the world’s total gas reserves.
Most of this gas is found in the Glafkos, Aphrodite and Calypso plots, which belong to Cyprus, as well as Israel’s Leviathan and Egypt’s Zohr.
Movements of Israel and Egypt
Initially Israel, which the Israeli Minister of Energy hinted that gas from deposits in the Exclusive Economic Zone could be transported to Europe by pipeline via Turkey… instead of the East Med.
In general, there is a willingness from Israel and, of course, Turkey to defuse tensions and start a gradual normalization of relations.
At the same time, Egypt’s move to launch a tender for hydrocarbon exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean, recognizing the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) bordered by Turkey, is considered an informal recognition of the EEZ between Turkey and Libya.
It should be noted that the demarcation starts from Fethiye-Marmaris-Kas on the southwest coast of Turkey and extends to the coast of Derna-Tobruk-Bordia in Libya.
In response, Egypt and Greece signed an agreement in August 2020, establishing an EEZ in the Eastern Mediterranean between the two countries.
According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, territorial waters may be set at a maximum of 12 naval miles at sea, but when it comes to the EEZ, where it has fishing, mining and drilling rights, these extend to 200 nautical miles or 370 kilometers.
However, if the sea distance between the two countries is less than 424 miles, a bilateral agreement is required to establish a mutually agreed demarcation line of the respective EEZs.
Greece, on the other hand, citing the Convention on the Law of the Sea states that the islands have EEZs.
Relations between Turkey and Egypt deteriorated when General Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi overthrew Mohammed Morsi in a coup with just one year in power.
The Turkish economy with a positive sign in 2020 at +1.8% … due to banks
Turkey’s economy grew less than expected, but at least had a positive sign in 2020 at + 1.8% with GDP growth at 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2020.
GDP growth in the second half of 2020 is due to almost doubling lending by state-owned banks to tackle the initial wave of the crown.
The Turkish lira stabilized at 7.25 against the US dollar after GDP data.
Turkey in 2020 surpassed all emerging markets (EM) and G-20 countries except China, which grew 6.5% in the last quarter and 2.3% internationally in 2020.
According to a Reuters poll, GDP is projected to grow 7.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2020, despite new bans and restrictions due to COVID-19 and 2.3% for 2020.
The financial sector contributed to growth in 2020, as it increased by 21.4%, according to TurkStat data.
The agricultural sector grew by 4.8% while the industrial sector grew by 2%.
The services sector decreased by 4.3% and the construction sector decreased by 3.5%.
Gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investment by companies, increased by 10.3% per year.
Turkey’s GDP at current prices fell to about $ 717.1 billion in 2020, from $ 760.8 billion in 2019.
GDP per capita decreased to $ 8,599 in 2020 from $
9,127 in 2019. In 2017 it was $ 10,597.
High inflation at 15%
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT), which aims to control inflation, raised interest rates by 675 basis points to 17% from November 2020 to control inflation.
Inflation is expected to rise more than 15% from 14.97% in January 2021.
The central bank expects inflation to fall to 9.4% by the end of 2021